With the acquisition of Johan Santana, the Mets added the best pitcher in baseball, and the hurler who sports the best lefthanded changeup ever thrown. (If anyone can think of a lefty with a better changeup, please post in the comments section. Cole Hamels' change isn't far behind.) Santana's change is one of, if not the best out pitch in the game, a dastardly circle-variety that floats down-and-away from righthanders in the mid-to-upper 70s, providing a stark contrast from his fastball (low-to-mid 90s) and nasty slider (80s).
The best righthanded changeup ever? That's right--with apologies to Trevor Hoffman, that pitch belongs to Pedro Martinez, who was bumped to the number two slot in the Mets rotation by the arrival of Santana. If Santana's changeup is a great pitch, than Pedro's is legendary. He throws the same circle variety as Santana, which moves down-and-in to lefthanders thanks to the pronation (counterclockwise twisting motion of the right hand upon delivery of the pitch--think of turning a doorknob to the left--which imparts a reverse, screwball spin on the ball, and wicked sinking movement due to Pedro's long fingers). Pedro's pitch has even more movement on it than Santana's, and is a truly untouchable offering when the righty has his best stuff.
Shea Stadium this year, then, will be the exhibition grounds for two of the greatest pitchers in baseball history, one future Hall-of-Famer in the twilight of his career and one moving through the peak. It will also be the place to go to see perhaps the two greatest changeups in baseball history, one thrown from the left side, and one from the right. And while you're there watching Santana and Martinez, don't be surprised to see dozens of National League hitters out on their front foot, made to look foolish by lunging at an offspeed offering from the Mets twin aces.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Santana's 2008 PECOTA projection
Over at Baseball Prospectus, Nate Silver has released Johan Santana's 2008 PECOTA projection for Shea Stadium, as well as what it would have looked like were he still a member of the Twins next year.
Santana is projected to put up a sub-3.00 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and strike out 239 batters in 225 innings. He does get a slight boost from moving to the National League and pitching in Shea, although Silver makes the point that the Metrodome has become a decent park for pitchers lately, lessening the impact on his numbers. However, one has reason to believe that his numbers could be even better than that--the esteemed BobbyBo made the point that Pedro Martinez's ERA dropped over a full run when he moved from the A.L. to the Mets--and Santana's 3.33 ERA from last year could be viewed as something of a fluke, anyway, due to an elevated home run rate. Santana will be just 29 this season, as well. The Mets pulled off an absolute coup, trading for the best pitcher in the game and doing so without giving up their best prospect, Fernando Martinez. This move instantly elevates New York to the favorite in the National League. Omar Minaya, whose curious moves this offseason have been criticized in this space, deserves full credit for taking advantage of a hamstrung Twins front office and leveraging one team's headache (Santana's trade demand) to land the 2008 favorite for the N.L. Cy Young award.
Santana is projected to put up a sub-3.00 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and strike out 239 batters in 225 innings. He does get a slight boost from moving to the National League and pitching in Shea, although Silver makes the point that the Metrodome has become a decent park for pitchers lately, lessening the impact on his numbers. However, one has reason to believe that his numbers could be even better than that--the esteemed BobbyBo made the point that Pedro Martinez's ERA dropped over a full run when he moved from the A.L. to the Mets--and Santana's 3.33 ERA from last year could be viewed as something of a fluke, anyway, due to an elevated home run rate. Santana will be just 29 this season, as well. The Mets pulled off an absolute coup, trading for the best pitcher in the game and doing so without giving up their best prospect, Fernando Martinez. This move instantly elevates New York to the favorite in the National League. Omar Minaya, whose curious moves this offseason have been criticized in this space, deserves full credit for taking advantage of a hamstrung Twins front office and leveraging one team's headache (Santana's trade demand) to land the 2008 favorite for the N.L. Cy Young award.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Mets Acquire Santana for 4 Prospects
According to multiple media outlets, the Mets have acquired Johan Santana from the Twins for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.
Provided below is a report given by Peter Gammons on ESPN.
Provided below is a report given by Peter Gammons on ESPN.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Talking Heads Does the Majors
The 1970s/80s New Wave/post-punk group Talking Heads proves a perfect filter through which to view major league baseball. Hard to believe, perhaps, but true--in fact, one can pick a song that speaks to each of various teams from off of the group's 1992 best-of album, Sand in the Vaseline. To spare you the time, I've already gone ahead and matched the appropriate song to the appropriate team. Here's the first installment:
1. Cleveland Indians--Heaven
"Heaven...heaven is a place. A place where nothing...nothing ever happens...
It's hard to imagine that nothing at all, could be so exciting, could be so much fun."
Hard to imagine, David Byrne, but true--the Indians are sitting on Cloud Nine right now, their team loaded with top young talent supported by a stellar farm system. Cleveland is so well set at every position, in fact, that the brains of the front office have barely lifted a finger this offseason, with their only moves since the Indians' season ended in Game Seven of the ALCS being to pick up the options on a couple of pitchers. The Cleveland front office has run the club so well that it can completely ignore the dangerous waters of free agency, and let voice mail pick up when other clubs come looking to pry some young talent away from the Tribe.
2. Houston Astros--Road To Nowhere
"We're on a road to nowhere,
Come on inside.
Taking that ride to nowhere,
We'll take that ride."
General Manager Ed Wade and the rest of the decrepit Houston organization are taking that ride. The worst farm system in the game, an old roster with no pitching, Brad Ausmus... The team's offseason's trade for Miguel Tejada pretty much sums up where the Astros are headed--they dealt a boatload of crap from their barren minor league system for an aging former MVP, who seems to get a little worse every year. And then, of course, the team's shiny new acquisition gets named in the Mitchell Report, and is now involved in a federal investigation into whether he lied to the government. It's going to be a long trip to oblivion in 2008 for the team that was in the world series just three seasons ago.
3. New York Yankees--Psycho Killer
"I can't seem to face up to the facts
I'm tense and nervous and I can't relax
I can't sleep cause my bed's on fire
Don't touch me I'm a real live wire."
This is less a summation of the Yankees than it is a divination of General Manager Brian Cashman's current state of mind. Can you imagine his situation? Already entrusted with the most stressful job in baseball, he has reason to believe that he might finally be given the scope needed to execute the full duties of his position without unneeded meddling from above when George Steinbrenner fades from the scene. But immediately in steps son Hank, and establishes himself as quite possibly a worse tyrant than King George. The younger Steinbrenner starts making more public statements about player personnel moves than George ever did, and informs the media that he's the one making the baseball operations decisions, with Cashman relegated to an advisory role. Poor Cash. I just hope he doesn't go on a killing spree before he gets to leave the Bronx for a club that will appreciate his baseball acumen.
4. Boston Red Sox--Don't Worry About The Government
Is there any doubt that the Sox have taken over the mantle of massive corporate dynastic baseball superpower from the Yankees? Boston is a machine, with one of the best front office brain trusts, a core of outstanding major league talent, and an prodigious farm system that is primed to pump out enough talent to keep the championships coming far into the future. No one's worried about the government, Theo--there's no recession in sight, and frankly, it's getting goddamned irritating.
5. Chicago Cubs--Memories Can't Wait
"Take a walk through the land of shadows
Take a walk through the peaceful meadows
Try not to look so disappointed
It isn't what you hoped for, is it?"
No, 99 years without a title certainly isn't what the faithful on the North Side had hoped for, despite the peaceful meadows of Wrigley Field maintaining their idyllic charm for all that time. The fans may look disappointed, but they still hold out hope that this could be the year. And that tired phrase holds a lot more meaning in 2008--especially if Chicago can pry Erik Bedard from Baltimore...
6. Florida Marlins--Stay Up Late
"Mommy had a little baby
There he is, fast asleep.
He's just a little plaything.
Why not wake him up?
Cute cute, little baby.
Little feet, little toes.
Now he's comin to me.
Crawl across the kitchen floor.
Baby, baby, please let me hold him
I wanna make him stay up all night
Sister, sister, he's just a plaything
We wanna make him stay up all night
Yeah we do
See him drink from a bottle.
See him eat from a plate.
Cute cute, as a button.
Don't you wanna make him stay up late?"
After trading "veterans" Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, the average age of your 2008 Marlins is going to be something like 17.4. Florida is in full-blown rebuilding mode for about the fourth time in the last decade, but honestly, you can't really knock the continuous roster explosions when the team pumps out a championship every eight years or so before tearing it down again and starting anew. The Marlins aren't long for Florida, it seems like, and with the collection of young talent they have, cities from Portland, Oregon to Portland, Maine should be clamoring for their services. Hey, Kingston, Rhode Island is the youngest town in the country--think it has a shot at landing the Fish?
7. Oakland A's--(Nothing But) Flowers
"There was a factory
Now there are mountains and rivers
you got it, you got it
There was a shopping mall
Now it's all covered with flowers
you've got it, you've got it
If this is paradise
I wish I had a lawnmower
you've got it, you've got it
Once there were parking lots
Now it's a peaceful oasis
you got it, you got it
This was a Pizza Hut
Now it's all covered with daisies
you got it, you got it
I miss the honky tonks,
Dairy Queens, and 7-Elevens
you got it, you got it
And as things fell apart
Nobody paid much attention
you got it, you got it"
IS this paradise? No, son--it's Oakland. No one, however, will be confusing Fremont, where the A's will move in 2010, for Nirvana. Oakland will be playing its second-to-last season in McAfee Coliseum this year, with new Cisco Field and an "Oakland A's at Fremont" tag looming. If you're a fan, as I am, of Oakland as an entity and an idea, a state of being in addition to a team, this is a tragedy of epic proportion. It's only fitting then that the A's will leave their epicly named venue, The Coliseum, behind. (I have a soft spot for stadiums that are called Coliseums. There's a sort of monumental, empty-upper-deck sordidness that the name calls to mind. It's a concrete platform for the real die-hard fans, an evocation of the dusty bloodletting and roaring, primeval emotion of Ancient Rome.) While The Coliseum will still stand to host Raiders games, the A's will be leaving behind nothing but metaphorical flowers--tough, gritty, street-hardened East Bay flowers--at the spot they used to call home.
In any event, here's something to help you deal with the team's impending departure, and the subsequent falling apart of things:
8. Baltimore Orioles--I Zimbra
"Gadji beri bimba clandridi
Lauli lonni cadori gadjam
A bim beri glassala glandride
E glassala tuffm I zimbra"
Shit, I can't decipher what the O's are doing with their once-proud franchise, either. Beats me what Peter Angelos is trying to say. The team certainly speaks a different language--and might as well play in a different country--than the Yankees and Red Sox. Pretty soon, the Rays are going to leave Baltimore's nonsensical realm behind, too. The Orioles shouldn't worry too much, though--the Blue Jays are still chirping away alongside them.
9. Montreal Expos (Washington Nationals)--Take Me To the River
"I don't know why I love her like I do
All the changes you put me through
Take my money, my cigarettes
I haven't seen the worst of it yet
I don't know why you treat me so bad
Think of all the things we could have had
Hug me, squeeze me, love me, tease me
Till I can't, till I can't, till I can't take no more of it
Take me to the water, drop me in the river
Push me in the water, drop me in the river
Washing me down, washing me down"
Some might say this song is better suited for another team--the Cubs maybe, or the Phils. Nah. Not even close. No doubt Talking Heads was singing the forlorn tale of the Expos-turned-Nationals. Few franchise stories are more tragic than that of Montreal, a fantastic baseball town that was slowly strangled to death by the greed and incompetence of Jeffrey Loria and major league baseball. And that's not even taking into account the team's struggles on the diamond. The Expos/Nationals have one playoff appearance--one--in their 39-year history. And if any Québécois has transferred his or her allegiance to the Nats, I hereby nominate you for baseball fan of the century. This song is truly your ballad. In any event, the fans of the reborn D.C. franchise are hoping that they HAVE seen the worst of it, that the ugly departure from Le Stade Olympic was the low-point of franchise history. And now, they're heading to the river to cleanse themselves of the sin that stains the team's history and bask in the good feeling of a brand new ballpark, on the banks of the mighty Anacostia.
[Runner-up: The Milwaukee Brewers. The poor Brew Crew's winning season last year was their first since 1992, and the franchise overall has just two playoff appearances in 38 years. And yes, there is a river in Milwaukee. It's called...well, the Milwaukee River, and there's a very pleasant little walk that runs beside it.]
10. New York Mets--Warning Sign
"Warning sign, warning sign,
I see it but I pay it no mind."
As a Mets fan, where did I go wrong? What did I do to anger the baseball gods, to throw off the cosmos's balance, to upset the perfect harmony of the game? How else can one explain the second-worst collapse in baseball history, blowing a seven-game lead held on September 12? If it was a warning sign, baseball gods, please know that we, the Mets fans, have paid it heed. Now, will you release us from whatever disastrous consequence the Shea Swoon possibly portends?
11. Kansas City Royals--The Big Country
"I see the shapes,
I remember from maps.
I see the shoreline.
I see the whitecaps.
A baseball diamond, nice weather down there.
I see the school and the houses where the kids are.
Places to park by the factories and buildings.
Restaurants and bars for later in the evening.
Then we come to the farmlands, and the undeveloped areas.
And I have learned how these things work together.
I see the parkway that passes through them all.
And I have learned how to look at these things and I say,
I wouldn't live there if you paid me.
I couldn't live like that, no siree!
I couldn't do the things the way those people do.
I couldn't live there if you paid me to.
I guess it's healthy, I guess the air is clean.
I guess those people have fun with their neighbors and friends.
Look at that kitchen and all of that food.
Look at them eat it guess it tastes real good.
They grow it in the farmlands
And they take it to the stores
They put it in the car trunk
And they bring it back home
And I say ...
I say, I wouldn't live there if you paid me.
I couldn't live like that, no siree!
I couldn't do the things the way those people do.
I wouldn't live there if you paid me to."
Well, this is a little harsh, but I understand the sentiment. Kansas City flies the banner for the flyover states--and the poor Royals, like the rest of the Midwest, haven't been relevant since the mid-80's. That was around the time when the idea for the Buffalo Commons first popped up. Coincidence? Or will Kaufman Stadium soon be overrun with grazing ungulates?
The next installment of Talking Heads Does the Majors will arrive soon.
1. Cleveland Indians--Heaven
"Heaven...heaven is a place. A place where nothing...nothing ever happens...
It's hard to imagine that nothing at all, could be so exciting, could be so much fun."
Hard to imagine, David Byrne, but true--the Indians are sitting on Cloud Nine right now, their team loaded with top young talent supported by a stellar farm system. Cleveland is so well set at every position, in fact, that the brains of the front office have barely lifted a finger this offseason, with their only moves since the Indians' season ended in Game Seven of the ALCS being to pick up the options on a couple of pitchers. The Cleveland front office has run the club so well that it can completely ignore the dangerous waters of free agency, and let voice mail pick up when other clubs come looking to pry some young talent away from the Tribe.
2. Houston Astros--Road To Nowhere
"We're on a road to nowhere,
Come on inside.
Taking that ride to nowhere,
We'll take that ride."
General Manager Ed Wade and the rest of the decrepit Houston organization are taking that ride. The worst farm system in the game, an old roster with no pitching, Brad Ausmus... The team's offseason's trade for Miguel Tejada pretty much sums up where the Astros are headed--they dealt a boatload of crap from their barren minor league system for an aging former MVP, who seems to get a little worse every year. And then, of course, the team's shiny new acquisition gets named in the Mitchell Report, and is now involved in a federal investigation into whether he lied to the government. It's going to be a long trip to oblivion in 2008 for the team that was in the world series just three seasons ago.
3. New York Yankees--Psycho Killer
"I can't seem to face up to the facts
I'm tense and nervous and I can't relax
I can't sleep cause my bed's on fire
Don't touch me I'm a real live wire."
This is less a summation of the Yankees than it is a divination of General Manager Brian Cashman's current state of mind. Can you imagine his situation? Already entrusted with the most stressful job in baseball, he has reason to believe that he might finally be given the scope needed to execute the full duties of his position without unneeded meddling from above when George Steinbrenner fades from the scene. But immediately in steps son Hank, and establishes himself as quite possibly a worse tyrant than King George. The younger Steinbrenner starts making more public statements about player personnel moves than George ever did, and informs the media that he's the one making the baseball operations decisions, with Cashman relegated to an advisory role. Poor Cash. I just hope he doesn't go on a killing spree before he gets to leave the Bronx for a club that will appreciate his baseball acumen.
4. Boston Red Sox--Don't Worry About The Government
Is there any doubt that the Sox have taken over the mantle of massive corporate dynastic baseball superpower from the Yankees? Boston is a machine, with one of the best front office brain trusts, a core of outstanding major league talent, and an prodigious farm system that is primed to pump out enough talent to keep the championships coming far into the future. No one's worried about the government, Theo--there's no recession in sight, and frankly, it's getting goddamned irritating.
5. Chicago Cubs--Memories Can't Wait
"Take a walk through the land of shadows
Take a walk through the peaceful meadows
Try not to look so disappointed
It isn't what you hoped for, is it?"
No, 99 years without a title certainly isn't what the faithful on the North Side had hoped for, despite the peaceful meadows of Wrigley Field maintaining their idyllic charm for all that time. The fans may look disappointed, but they still hold out hope that this could be the year. And that tired phrase holds a lot more meaning in 2008--especially if Chicago can pry Erik Bedard from Baltimore...
6. Florida Marlins--Stay Up Late
"Mommy had a little baby
There he is, fast asleep.
He's just a little plaything.
Why not wake him up?
Cute cute, little baby.
Little feet, little toes.
Now he's comin to me.
Crawl across the kitchen floor.
Baby, baby, please let me hold him
I wanna make him stay up all night
Sister, sister, he's just a plaything
We wanna make him stay up all night
Yeah we do
See him drink from a bottle.
See him eat from a plate.
Cute cute, as a button.
Don't you wanna make him stay up late?"
After trading "veterans" Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, the average age of your 2008 Marlins is going to be something like 17.4. Florida is in full-blown rebuilding mode for about the fourth time in the last decade, but honestly, you can't really knock the continuous roster explosions when the team pumps out a championship every eight years or so before tearing it down again and starting anew. The Marlins aren't long for Florida, it seems like, and with the collection of young talent they have, cities from Portland, Oregon to Portland, Maine should be clamoring for their services. Hey, Kingston, Rhode Island is the youngest town in the country--think it has a shot at landing the Fish?
7. Oakland A's--(Nothing But) Flowers
"There was a factory
Now there are mountains and rivers
you got it, you got it
There was a shopping mall
Now it's all covered with flowers
you've got it, you've got it
If this is paradise
I wish I had a lawnmower
you've got it, you've got it
Once there were parking lots
Now it's a peaceful oasis
you got it, you got it
This was a Pizza Hut
Now it's all covered with daisies
you got it, you got it
I miss the honky tonks,
Dairy Queens, and 7-Elevens
you got it, you got it
And as things fell apart
Nobody paid much attention
you got it, you got it"
IS this paradise? No, son--it's Oakland. No one, however, will be confusing Fremont, where the A's will move in 2010, for Nirvana. Oakland will be playing its second-to-last season in McAfee Coliseum this year, with new Cisco Field and an "Oakland A's at Fremont" tag looming. If you're a fan, as I am, of Oakland as an entity and an idea, a state of being in addition to a team, this is a tragedy of epic proportion. It's only fitting then that the A's will leave their epicly named venue, The Coliseum, behind. (I have a soft spot for stadiums that are called Coliseums. There's a sort of monumental, empty-upper-deck sordidness that the name calls to mind. It's a concrete platform for the real die-hard fans, an evocation of the dusty bloodletting and roaring, primeval emotion of Ancient Rome.) While The Coliseum will still stand to host Raiders games, the A's will be leaving behind nothing but metaphorical flowers--tough, gritty, street-hardened East Bay flowers--at the spot they used to call home.
In any event, here's something to help you deal with the team's impending departure, and the subsequent falling apart of things:
8. Baltimore Orioles--I Zimbra
"Gadji beri bimba clandridi
Lauli lonni cadori gadjam
A bim beri glassala glandride
E glassala tuffm I zimbra"
Shit, I can't decipher what the O's are doing with their once-proud franchise, either. Beats me what Peter Angelos is trying to say. The team certainly speaks a different language--and might as well play in a different country--than the Yankees and Red Sox. Pretty soon, the Rays are going to leave Baltimore's nonsensical realm behind, too. The Orioles shouldn't worry too much, though--the Blue Jays are still chirping away alongside them.
9. Montreal Expos (Washington Nationals)--Take Me To the River
"I don't know why I love her like I do
All the changes you put me through
Take my money, my cigarettes
I haven't seen the worst of it yet
I don't know why you treat me so bad
Think of all the things we could have had
Hug me, squeeze me, love me, tease me
Till I can't, till I can't, till I can't take no more of it
Take me to the water, drop me in the river
Push me in the water, drop me in the river
Washing me down, washing me down"
Some might say this song is better suited for another team--the Cubs maybe, or the Phils. Nah. Not even close. No doubt Talking Heads was singing the forlorn tale of the Expos-turned-Nationals. Few franchise stories are more tragic than that of Montreal, a fantastic baseball town that was slowly strangled to death by the greed and incompetence of Jeffrey Loria and major league baseball. And that's not even taking into account the team's struggles on the diamond. The Expos/Nationals have one playoff appearance--one--in their 39-year history. And if any Québécois has transferred his or her allegiance to the Nats, I hereby nominate you for baseball fan of the century. This song is truly your ballad. In any event, the fans of the reborn D.C. franchise are hoping that they HAVE seen the worst of it, that the ugly departure from Le Stade Olympic was the low-point of franchise history. And now, they're heading to the river to cleanse themselves of the sin that stains the team's history and bask in the good feeling of a brand new ballpark, on the banks of the mighty Anacostia.
[Runner-up: The Milwaukee Brewers. The poor Brew Crew's winning season last year was their first since 1992, and the franchise overall has just two playoff appearances in 38 years. And yes, there is a river in Milwaukee. It's called...well, the Milwaukee River, and there's a very pleasant little walk that runs beside it.]
10. New York Mets--Warning Sign
"Warning sign, warning sign,
I see it but I pay it no mind."
As a Mets fan, where did I go wrong? What did I do to anger the baseball gods, to throw off the cosmos's balance, to upset the perfect harmony of the game? How else can one explain the second-worst collapse in baseball history, blowing a seven-game lead held on September 12? If it was a warning sign, baseball gods, please know that we, the Mets fans, have paid it heed. Now, will you release us from whatever disastrous consequence the Shea Swoon possibly portends?
11. Kansas City Royals--The Big Country
"I see the shapes,
I remember from maps.
I see the shoreline.
I see the whitecaps.
A baseball diamond, nice weather down there.
I see the school and the houses where the kids are.
Places to park by the factories and buildings.
Restaurants and bars for later in the evening.
Then we come to the farmlands, and the undeveloped areas.
And I have learned how these things work together.
I see the parkway that passes through them all.
And I have learned how to look at these things and I say,
I wouldn't live there if you paid me.
I couldn't live like that, no siree!
I couldn't do the things the way those people do.
I couldn't live there if you paid me to.
I guess it's healthy, I guess the air is clean.
I guess those people have fun with their neighbors and friends.
Look at that kitchen and all of that food.
Look at them eat it guess it tastes real good.
They grow it in the farmlands
And they take it to the stores
They put it in the car trunk
And they bring it back home
And I say ...
I say, I wouldn't live there if you paid me.
I couldn't live like that, no siree!
I couldn't do the things the way those people do.
I wouldn't live there if you paid me to."
Well, this is a little harsh, but I understand the sentiment. Kansas City flies the banner for the flyover states--and the poor Royals, like the rest of the Midwest, haven't been relevant since the mid-80's. That was around the time when the idea for the Buffalo Commons first popped up. Coincidence? Or will Kaufman Stadium soon be overrun with grazing ungulates?
The next installment of Talking Heads Does the Majors will arrive soon.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Poll Results
Eight Men Out, the movie adaptation of Eliot Asimov's 8 Men Out, about the 1919 Black Sox scandal, was the narrow winner in our baseball movie poll. Bull Durham, Field of Dreams, and Major League all tied for second place, one vote back.
Can we all agree that there is a noticeable void of really good baseball movies? It seems that football is a sport much better adapted for the big screen. Friday Night Lights, the movie version of H.G. Bissinger's iconic recounting of the 1988 season of the Permian High School football team of Odessa, in west Texas, is in my opinion superior to any of the baseball movies in the poll. In fact, I wonder which sport lends itself best to the silver screen? Basketball has Hoosiers, He Got Game, Hoop Dreams. Golf has Caddyshack. Boxing has...Raging Bull, Million Dollar Baby, Rocky. What others am I forgetting? I guess people really love Bull Durham--it's been at the top of a couple "Best Sports Movies" lists I just looked at--but I just don't see it. I guess I'll have to go back and watch it again.
Our next poll asks: if the season started today, which team should be favored to win the N.L. pennant?
Can we all agree that there is a noticeable void of really good baseball movies? It seems that football is a sport much better adapted for the big screen. Friday Night Lights, the movie version of H.G. Bissinger's iconic recounting of the 1988 season of the Permian High School football team of Odessa, in west Texas, is in my opinion superior to any of the baseball movies in the poll. In fact, I wonder which sport lends itself best to the silver screen? Basketball has Hoosiers, He Got Game, Hoop Dreams. Golf has Caddyshack. Boxing has...Raging Bull, Million Dollar Baby, Rocky. What others am I forgetting? I guess people really love Bull Durham--it's been at the top of a couple "Best Sports Movies" lists I just looked at--but I just don't see it. I guess I'll have to go back and watch it again.
Our next poll asks: if the season started today, which team should be favored to win the N.L. pennant?
An Exceedingly Obvious Observation
Forgive my simplicity, but I have what amounts to a very obvious observation to make, one that's been burning a metaphorical hole in my mind for some time.
It boils down, basically, to this: A contract worth X amount of money for N years is a better deal than a contract worth X amount of money for N-1 years.
That seems quite clear. In the second contract you're getting a "free" year tacked on to the end of the first, and if the player is hurt or otherwise has lost his effectiveness, you could simply release him and pay no more than you did in the first contract. But this concept is not so obvious when you consider what has lately become something of a sabermetric tenet: the rallying cry of "more money, fewer years." Contracts handed out that have a high average annual value over a short period are hailed as better deals than contracts that have a lower average annual value over a longer period. One-year deals, in particular, are especially lauded, regardless of the often-high salaries that those deals are attached to.
The theory behind this reasoning is sound. Free agents, by their very definition, are already six full years into their major league careers, and as such, in the vast majority of cases they hit the market either at or after their peak years. It makes sense to give these players shorter-term deals, because it is likely that in the last years of long contracts the players will be well past their primes. As big-names with high salaries, these players will continue to amass large numbers of at bats in starting roles despite their decline, damaging a team's roster flexibility and hampering the optimal team construction, perhaps by blocking a superior younger player or preventing the team from addressing what it views as a position already filled.
In practice, this is indeed usually the usage pattern of late-contract former free agents by major league teams, giving credence to the "more money, fewer years" mantra. But it is only so because of the intractability and backwardness of franchises. If teams were only able to see their players in the impartial light of pure rationality, without the influences of sunk-cost salary commitment and star power--influences that have absolutely nothing to do with winning baseball games--then they could optimize their roster construction despite the presence of aging players in the final years of their free-agent contract. Take, for example, a star center fielder who hits the market at age 30, and is offered two contracts: a three-year deal worth $40 million, or a four year deal worth $45. The performance analyst might lobby for the former, knowing that our star shortstop is already showing the signs of aging and will be a below-average starter before too long. But when viewed as being the first deal plus a 1 year, $5 million dollar commitment for the fourth year, the second deal clearly comes out as the superior one--that is, if the team in question can recognize that at that point in the contract, the star center fielder might need to be moved to an outfield corner or first base, play with a platoon partner, or be a strong bench bat and occasional starter. It's hard to argue that a player worthy of $13.3 million dollars a year wouldn't be worth $5 million in the fourth year, but easy to argue that that fourth year might be an albatross around the team's neck if it continues to utilize him in the exact same role for the entirety of the contract. By understanding aging curves, the gradual shift down the defensive spectrum (from center field to left field, for example), and utilizing its assets in their most optimal roles, regardless of off-the-field factors, money already spent, or a player's demands, a team can squeeze the most value out of long-term contracts and prevent those more lengthy commitments from being so frowned upon by the performance analysis community.
Joe Sheehan discussed this issue in 2005 regarding the signings of Rafael Furcal (3 years, $39 million) vs. Edgar Renteria (4 years, $40 million), and explained his reasoning for favoring contracts that offer more money over fewer years.
There is one more factor to consider in the debate between more expensive, shorter contracts versus cheaper longer ones. The "more money, fewer years" approach is superior with respect to when a player goes down with a season- or career-ending injury towards the back-end of a deal. This serves to complicate the whole debate, especially with regards to pitchers, who are far more likely to suffer devastating injuries than position players. Clearly, there are no hard-and-fast rules here, and every contract must be analyzed in its own context and unique environment. However, one should not dismiss long-term deals simply due to a belief that the more years a contract has, the worse it is.
It boils down, basically, to this: A contract worth X amount of money for N years is a better deal than a contract worth X amount of money for N-1 years.
That seems quite clear. In the second contract you're getting a "free" year tacked on to the end of the first, and if the player is hurt or otherwise has lost his effectiveness, you could simply release him and pay no more than you did in the first contract. But this concept is not so obvious when you consider what has lately become something of a sabermetric tenet: the rallying cry of "more money, fewer years." Contracts handed out that have a high average annual value over a short period are hailed as better deals than contracts that have a lower average annual value over a longer period. One-year deals, in particular, are especially lauded, regardless of the often-high salaries that those deals are attached to.
The theory behind this reasoning is sound. Free agents, by their very definition, are already six full years into their major league careers, and as such, in the vast majority of cases they hit the market either at or after their peak years. It makes sense to give these players shorter-term deals, because it is likely that in the last years of long contracts the players will be well past their primes. As big-names with high salaries, these players will continue to amass large numbers of at bats in starting roles despite their decline, damaging a team's roster flexibility and hampering the optimal team construction, perhaps by blocking a superior younger player or preventing the team from addressing what it views as a position already filled.
In practice, this is indeed usually the usage pattern of late-contract former free agents by major league teams, giving credence to the "more money, fewer years" mantra. But it is only so because of the intractability and backwardness of franchises. If teams were only able to see their players in the impartial light of pure rationality, without the influences of sunk-cost salary commitment and star power--influences that have absolutely nothing to do with winning baseball games--then they could optimize their roster construction despite the presence of aging players in the final years of their free-agent contract. Take, for example, a star center fielder who hits the market at age 30, and is offered two contracts: a three-year deal worth $40 million, or a four year deal worth $45. The performance analyst might lobby for the former, knowing that our star shortstop is already showing the signs of aging and will be a below-average starter before too long. But when viewed as being the first deal plus a 1 year, $5 million dollar commitment for the fourth year, the second deal clearly comes out as the superior one--that is, if the team in question can recognize that at that point in the contract, the star center fielder might need to be moved to an outfield corner or first base, play with a platoon partner, or be a strong bench bat and occasional starter. It's hard to argue that a player worthy of $13.3 million dollars a year wouldn't be worth $5 million in the fourth year, but easy to argue that that fourth year might be an albatross around the team's neck if it continues to utilize him in the exact same role for the entirety of the contract. By understanding aging curves, the gradual shift down the defensive spectrum (from center field to left field, for example), and utilizing its assets in their most optimal roles, regardless of off-the-field factors, money already spent, or a player's demands, a team can squeeze the most value out of long-term contracts and prevent those more lengthy commitments from being so frowned upon by the performance analysis community.
Joe Sheehan discussed this issue in 2005 regarding the signings of Rafael Furcal (3 years, $39 million) vs. Edgar Renteria (4 years, $40 million), and explained his reasoning for favoring contracts that offer more money over fewer years.
The Dodgers made the Rafael Furcal signing official. As I mentioned last week, I really like the pickup, as much for the structure of the contract--more money over fewer years--as its impact on the Dodgers.
I got a lot of negative feedback on that claim, so perhaps I should expound on it. I don’t know that I can argue that a three-year, $39-million contract makes more sense than a four-year, $40-million deal. As a number of readers mentioned, if you like the first, the second is essentially that deal and a $1 million salary for the fourth year, which should be a deal you’d make with any free agent worth signing. That’s an extreme example, where the team pays maximum price for the luxury of a shorter commitment, and as such, is probably not viable. If you use the Renteria contract as a gauge, you can’t see Furcal’s deal as a bargain.
There is definitely a sweet spot, however, where a portion of the money that would be assigned to a fourth year is spread amongst the first three, yielding a higher average annual salary but a lower total value, and limiting the commitment to three years. The attrition rates of ballplayers and their inherent unpredictability, as well as the negative impact of an eight-figure salary attached to a poor player, lead me to believe that this tradeoff point is higher than most people think it is, if not the 90% of fourth-year money implied by the Furcal contract, at least somewhere north of 50%. There’s more value in avoiding that dead year at the end of a deal than in the marginal N million dollars extra you pay in each season prior to it, at least for teams with reasonable capitalization and cash flow.
I can see where, as an industry, baseball would discourage this practice. After all, it’s annual salaries that become the comparison point in negotiations, be they with pre-arbitration players, arb cases or other free agents, and this kind of approach would tend to drive those figures up. Then again, what hurts teams more? Extra money paid out to productive players, or the back ends of ludicrious four- five- and six-year deals that drag down a roster and a payroll?
I’m not sure exactly where this sweet spot lies. I’m actually fairly sure it’s a moving target based a team’s cash flow and risk tolerance, as well as a player’s risk profile. If Furcal’s contract is an extreme example of the principle, and not economically sound, I can accept that, but I think the approach--fewer years, higher AAV--is sensible given the difficulty of projecting player performance beyond a short time horizon.
There is one more factor to consider in the debate between more expensive, shorter contracts versus cheaper longer ones. The "more money, fewer years" approach is superior with respect to when a player goes down with a season- or career-ending injury towards the back-end of a deal. This serves to complicate the whole debate, especially with regards to pitchers, who are far more likely to suffer devastating injuries than position players. Clearly, there are no hard-and-fast rules here, and every contract must be analyzed in its own context and unique environment. However, one should not dismiss long-term deals simply due to a belief that the more years a contract has, the worse it is.
Spring Training
As we near the end of January our attention is slowly shifting from the dreary weather of Queens to the sunny, carefree life in Port St. Lucie where the NY Mets will soon begin Spring Training. Like last year, the Mets enter camp with the bitter taste of disappointment still fresh in their mouth. Unfortunately, in 2007 the Mets were rather listless throughout Spring Training. They failed to properly execute the basic fundamentals of the game. They consistently failed to hit, they played poor defense, their pitching was clobbered, and they seemed to always lose. This fact was largely forgotten when the Mets got off to a hot start in the regular season during April and May. Still, the flaws displayed throughout the spring ultimately plagued the team during the 2007 regular season. While I do not put a lot of stock in pre-season records, I do believe it is important for the Mets to use this spring to establish good habits on the field. The Mets need to play crisp, inspired baseball again this spring. They need to wash out the taste of failure and replace it with a winning mentality. They need to cut down the errors, reduce the mental breakdowns on the bases, and advance runners. Regardless of whether or not this team has Santana, they are a legitimate contender for the NL East crown. It is time they started to once again play and execute like recent division champions.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Double F**cking Solitaire
Here at The Three Run Homer, we've been playing the equivalent of double solitaire on the blogging front. In the words of Deadwood's iconic bartender Tom Nuttal: "Where's your f**cking ball gowns? Break out the chips, boys, and let's get a poker game going!"
Well put, and point taken. In the coming months leading in to the baseball season, we will attempt to stash our ballgowns and break out the metaphorical poker game--full-scale baseball insight and analysis, with a slanting towards those boys from Queens.
Let the merriment thus commence.
Well put, and point taken. In the coming months leading in to the baseball season, we will attempt to stash our ballgowns and break out the metaphorical poker game--full-scale baseball insight and analysis, with a slanting towards those boys from Queens.
Let the merriment thus commence.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Chavez Avoids Arbitration
The Mets and OF Endy Chavez avoided arbitration and agreed to a $3.85 million, two-year contract extension. Chavez will earn $1.8 million this season and $2.05 million in 2009.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Heilman Avoids Arbitration
The Mets and Aaron Heilman have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year $1.2-million contract. In his recent article, Marty Noble points out that "Heilman, who earned $453,000 last year, was one of six Mets players in position to exchange arbitration figures with the club Friday. He is the only one who agreed to a contract." The five other Mets who filed for arbitration include: Pedro Feliciano, Ryan Church, Endy Chavez, Oliver Perez and Jorge Sosa.
Mets Re-Sign Jose Valentin
The Mets have officially re-signed free-agent 2B Jose Valentin to a minor-league contract and invited him to spring training.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
The Stache will be back
It looks as if the Mets are planning on bringing back Jose Valentin. Seeing that he won't resume baseball activities till mid-March, he will be given a minor league deal and an invitation to spring training. If he were to make the team he will make $1 million dollars. This seems like good insurance if Luis Castillo were to go down. Although after signing Castillo to a 4 year, 25 million dollar deal, we would like to expect him to play the whole season. If he misses a significant portion of time in the first year of that debatable contract, Omar will never hear the end of it. If things go well, we should not expect to see Valentin play on the major league club this year.
The last roster spot would be better utilized to bring in a RH hitting OF who dominates lefties, instead of the switch-hitting Valentin who has struggled from the right side. Kevin Mench and Sammy Sosa are available. Mench would need to be offered a guaranteed contract, and probably could be offered a starting job elsewhere while the Mets could possibly take a flyer on Sammy Sosa and offer him a non-guaranteed contract to see if he is willing to come to NY. Omar has always had a thing for Sammy Sosa, and this could finally be his chance to bring him to NY. Before I am crucified for mentioning Sosa's name here are his stats vs. left handed pitchers last year.
119AB .328 AVG. 7HR 37RBI 132B OPS-. 1023
I wouldn't mind inviting him to spring training and seeing what he can do, especially if we were to trade some of our outfield depth in a deal for Santana. Although his overall numbers weren’t that impressive last year, he still showed that he can hit the long ball. The added pop will help our bench, and definitely be a large upgrade over the power-hitting Julio Franco who was our primary pinch-hitter for the early part of last season
The last roster spot would be better utilized to bring in a RH hitting OF who dominates lefties, instead of the switch-hitting Valentin who has struggled from the right side. Kevin Mench and Sammy Sosa are available. Mench would need to be offered a guaranteed contract, and probably could be offered a starting job elsewhere while the Mets could possibly take a flyer on Sammy Sosa and offer him a non-guaranteed contract to see if he is willing to come to NY. Omar has always had a thing for Sammy Sosa, and this could finally be his chance to bring him to NY. Before I am crucified for mentioning Sosa's name here are his stats vs. left handed pitchers last year.
119AB .328 AVG. 7HR 37RBI 132B OPS-. 1023
I wouldn't mind inviting him to spring training and seeing what he can do, especially if we were to trade some of our outfield depth in a deal for Santana. Although his overall numbers weren’t that impressive last year, he still showed that he can hit the long ball. The added pop will help our bench, and definitely be a large upgrade over the power-hitting Julio Franco who was our primary pinch-hitter for the early part of last season
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
2008 Season Fast Approaching
Mets pitchers and catchers will report to Port St. Lucie exactly one month from today.
Monday, January 14, 2008
An Ode to Satchel
It's difficult to ascertain whether Satchel Paige was completely real, or whether he was, at least partly, a fictitious creation, drawn up in the imagination of our baseball-obsessed nation. Perhaps the greatest Negro League player of all time, and unquestionably one of the best pitchers to ever take the mound, Paige certainly had numerous threads of the fantastic woven into his remarkable life story. He is baseball's version of Paul Bunyan, a giant whose legend stretched across nations, from Mexico to Puerto Rico, North Dakota to Denver to Pittsburgh. His lanky frame, high-kicking delivery and blazing fastball, his unmatchable ability to entertain a crowd (calling in his outfielders before striking out the side), combined to create one of the most magnetic presences in the history of sports. Although Satchel died in 1982, the gravitational pull of his personality has certainly not been quenched. It is that aura that drew me in when I first read about him in Satchel Sez, a pictorial accounting of his most memorable remarks I was given one Christmas as a child. The more I learned about Satchel, the more I admired him, not just because of his legendary exploits on the mound—and there are plenty of those—but also because he was a completely free spirit, a baseball vagabond who pitched wherever his impulses took him and said whatever was on his mind ("I ain't ever had a job. I just always played baseball").
In this way, he defied the white baseball establishment that held fast to its unwritten rule barring blacks from playing in the majors. "That's fine," Paige in effect said to that establishment through his actions—“I can do it better on my own, anyway." And he did. He made more money that any of his white contemporaries in the Major Leagues over the course of his career (he even had his own private plane), leveraging his incredible drawing power into receiving a portion of the gate on days he pitched. That drawing power was indeed substantial—both black and white wanted to see the restless, flamboyant dynamo, and games which featured Satch routinely outdrew major league contests. His persona raised the profile of the Negro Leagues and America's exposure to black baseball by an untold margin, and therefore Satch can be said to be one of the players who helped pave the path to integration traveled by Jackie Robinson.
Satchel's substantial wisdom, doled out on the pages of my book in the form of the many iconic baseball aphorisms that he might or might not have said (in this regard, Yogi Berra should be known as the white Satchel Paige), spoke and still speaks to me on many different levels. The beauty of Satchel's common sense approach was readily apparent to me as a pitcher, learning to control the game—"I never rush myself. See, they can't start the game without me."—and command it—"Throw strikes. Home plate don't move." Perhaps the greatest wealth of Satchel's wisdom stemmed from the recurring questions about his true age. While there's evidence that even Satchel himself didn't exactly know how old he was, he intentionally promoted the public's uncertainty ("Age is a case of mind over matter. If you don't mind, it don't matter"). In Satchel's seeming agelessness is a lesson for all baseball fans, a lesson he actually spelled out with his six "Rules for Staying Young," which were first published in the June 13, 1953 issue of Collier's magazine. They are without a doubt my favorite part of Satchel's unique lexicon, and the aspect of his indispensable body of wisdom that has influenced me the most:
1. Avoid fried meats which angry up the blood.
2. If your stomach disputes you, lie down and pacify it with cool thoughts.
3. Keep the juices flowing by jangling around gently as you move.
4. Go very light on the vices, such as carrying on in society—the social ramble ain’t restful.
5. Avoid running at all times.
6. And don’t look back—something might be gaining on you.
These rules have always captivated me—they are a fascinating societal and cultural statement, an eccentric hardball genius's musings on life. I've kept them in mind over the years, letting them jangle around gently as I've moved through life, hoping to keep the juices flowing while I try to unravel the true meaning of Leroy Robert's philosophy. In the past year, the “Rules” have provided me a more concrete solace from the unconquerable reality of having to hang up the old spikes—in a literal sense with regards to my baseball playing days, which ended with one final tour through the junior varsity circuit last spring, and figuratively with regards to my graduation from college. Faced with this ages-old crisis of maturation, I desperately cast about for some assurance that my departure from college would not not signal the corresponding escape of youth. Naturally, I turned to baseball for comfort, and re-discovered the six tenets of Satch contained in my old favorite book. Just like the national pastime, the process of staying young has clear-cut, definable rules. Inside the lines of a baseball diamond, the passing of time has no effect—the dictates of the game alone hold sway. As long as certain conditions are met, a game of baseball could last forever, its combatants never aging. Likewise, as long as one follows the letter of Satch's “Rules for Staying Young,” youth can be maintained in perpetuity.
Before discounting the effectiveness of these clearly-lighthearted "Rules," consider what they did for Paige himself. On account of baseball’s color barrier, Satch didn’t make his major league debut until 1948, when he was already 41 years old (at least). He posted a 2.48 ERA and won six of his seven decisions that season, then went on to pitch four more years. Paige even came back in September of 1965, at the age of 59, to throw three scoreless innings for the Kansas City Athletics, becoming the oldest player to ever appear in a major league game before fading from the professional baseball scene one last time.
Truly, Paige never lost his youth, even when he grew old. And it was baseball, his boyish love for the game and his refusal to ever let it leave his life—"Maybe I'll Pitch Forever" was the title of his autobiography—that prevented him from losing that youth. At a time when this potential loss seems closer than it ever has for me—I am supposed to be fully embracing the responsibilities of entering the "real world"—such a model of indefinite youth, and the beautifully simple guide to achieving it, is of the utmost comfort. Paige's example, and his rules, reminds one to never forget that baseball at its most fundamental level is seen through the eyes of the young, and appeals to us all, first and foremost, as youths. If I keep this in mind, maybe, like Paige, I can use baseball and my love for the game to stay young. And I'll always thank Satch, who reminds us to count our blessings for having the remarkable fortune to follow a sport holding within it the true fountain of youth, and, somewhere, the pitcher who managed to find it.
In this way, he defied the white baseball establishment that held fast to its unwritten rule barring blacks from playing in the majors. "That's fine," Paige in effect said to that establishment through his actions—“I can do it better on my own, anyway." And he did. He made more money that any of his white contemporaries in the Major Leagues over the course of his career (he even had his own private plane), leveraging his incredible drawing power into receiving a portion of the gate on days he pitched. That drawing power was indeed substantial—both black and white wanted to see the restless, flamboyant dynamo, and games which featured Satch routinely outdrew major league contests. His persona raised the profile of the Negro Leagues and America's exposure to black baseball by an untold margin, and therefore Satch can be said to be one of the players who helped pave the path to integration traveled by Jackie Robinson.
Satchel's substantial wisdom, doled out on the pages of my book in the form of the many iconic baseball aphorisms that he might or might not have said (in this regard, Yogi Berra should be known as the white Satchel Paige), spoke and still speaks to me on many different levels. The beauty of Satchel's common sense approach was readily apparent to me as a pitcher, learning to control the game—"I never rush myself. See, they can't start the game without me."—and command it—"Throw strikes. Home plate don't move." Perhaps the greatest wealth of Satchel's wisdom stemmed from the recurring questions about his true age. While there's evidence that even Satchel himself didn't exactly know how old he was, he intentionally promoted the public's uncertainty ("Age is a case of mind over matter. If you don't mind, it don't matter"). In Satchel's seeming agelessness is a lesson for all baseball fans, a lesson he actually spelled out with his six "Rules for Staying Young," which were first published in the June 13, 1953 issue of Collier's magazine. They are without a doubt my favorite part of Satchel's unique lexicon, and the aspect of his indispensable body of wisdom that has influenced me the most:
1. Avoid fried meats which angry up the blood.
2. If your stomach disputes you, lie down and pacify it with cool thoughts.
3. Keep the juices flowing by jangling around gently as you move.
4. Go very light on the vices, such as carrying on in society—the social ramble ain’t restful.
5. Avoid running at all times.
6. And don’t look back—something might be gaining on you.
These rules have always captivated me—they are a fascinating societal and cultural statement, an eccentric hardball genius's musings on life. I've kept them in mind over the years, letting them jangle around gently as I've moved through life, hoping to keep the juices flowing while I try to unravel the true meaning of Leroy Robert's philosophy. In the past year, the “Rules” have provided me a more concrete solace from the unconquerable reality of having to hang up the old spikes—in a literal sense with regards to my baseball playing days, which ended with one final tour through the junior varsity circuit last spring, and figuratively with regards to my graduation from college. Faced with this ages-old crisis of maturation, I desperately cast about for some assurance that my departure from college would not not signal the corresponding escape of youth. Naturally, I turned to baseball for comfort, and re-discovered the six tenets of Satch contained in my old favorite book. Just like the national pastime, the process of staying young has clear-cut, definable rules. Inside the lines of a baseball diamond, the passing of time has no effect—the dictates of the game alone hold sway. As long as certain conditions are met, a game of baseball could last forever, its combatants never aging. Likewise, as long as one follows the letter of Satch's “Rules for Staying Young,” youth can be maintained in perpetuity.
Before discounting the effectiveness of these clearly-lighthearted "Rules," consider what they did for Paige himself. On account of baseball’s color barrier, Satch didn’t make his major league debut until 1948, when he was already 41 years old (at least). He posted a 2.48 ERA and won six of his seven decisions that season, then went on to pitch four more years. Paige even came back in September of 1965, at the age of 59, to throw three scoreless innings for the Kansas City Athletics, becoming the oldest player to ever appear in a major league game before fading from the professional baseball scene one last time.
Truly, Paige never lost his youth, even when he grew old. And it was baseball, his boyish love for the game and his refusal to ever let it leave his life—"Maybe I'll Pitch Forever" was the title of his autobiography—that prevented him from losing that youth. At a time when this potential loss seems closer than it ever has for me—I am supposed to be fully embracing the responsibilities of entering the "real world"—such a model of indefinite youth, and the beautifully simple guide to achieving it, is of the utmost comfort. Paige's example, and his rules, reminds one to never forget that baseball at its most fundamental level is seen through the eyes of the young, and appeals to us all, first and foremost, as youths. If I keep this in mind, maybe, like Paige, I can use baseball and my love for the game to stay young. And I'll always thank Satch, who reminds us to count our blessings for having the remarkable fortune to follow a sport holding within it the true fountain of youth, and, somewhere, the pitcher who managed to find it.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Poll Results
Our most recent poll asked fans how many games they felt that the New York Mets would win during the 2008 season. The results are as follows:
53 percent of fans who voted said that the Mets would win 94 games or more in 2008.
40 percent of fans who voted said that the Mets would win 90-94 games in 2008.
7 percent of fans who voted said that the Mets would win 80-84 games in 2008.
53 percent of fans who voted said that the Mets would win 94 games or more in 2008.
40 percent of fans who voted said that the Mets would win 90-94 games in 2008.
7 percent of fans who voted said that the Mets would win 80-84 games in 2008.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Sanchez resigns and Nieto replaces Henderson
The Mets re-signed RHP Duaner Sanchez to a one-year, major league contract. Sanchez is rehabbing from a string of injuries that started in the summer of 2006.
Also, in an article on mlb.com, Marty Noble reports that "Tom Nieto will be the coach taking Henderson's spot on the staff."
Also, in an article on mlb.com, Marty Noble reports that "Tom Nieto will be the coach taking Henderson's spot on the staff."
First set of Mets Player Projections for 2008
Here are Bill James's projections for the 2008 New York Mets as of today.
Jose Reyes - .284/.348/.442 (AVG/OBP/SLG), .789 OPS, 14 HR, 69 SB, 20 CS
Luis Castillo - .299/.370/.360, .730 OPS, 3 HR, 20 SB, 10 CS
David Wright - .318/.407/.554, .961 OPS, 31 HR, 27 SB, 7 CS
Carlos Beltran - .275/.364/.515, .878 OPS, 32 HR, 23 SB, 5 CS
Carlos Delgado - .269/.373/.508, .881 OPS, 30 HR, 2 SB, 1 CS
Moises Alou - .292/.360/.477, .837 OPS, 19 HR, 3 SB, 1 CS, 123 Games
Ryan Church - .273/.353/.463, .815 OPS, 15 HR, 4 SB, 2 CS, 130 Games
Brian Schneider - .249/.328/.362, .690 OPS, 7 HR, 0 SB, 0 CS
Ruben Gotay - .258/.321/.406, .728 OPS, 128 AB, 3 HR
Endy Chavez - .273/.318/.368, .687 OPS, 209 AB, 2 HR, 7 SB, 3 CS
Damion Easley - .235/.326/.395, .721 OPS, 162 AB, 6 HR
Marlon Anderson - .262/.323/.402, .725 OPS, 122 AB
Ramon Castro - .252/322/.469, .791 OPS, 290 AB, 16 HR
Angel Pagan - .250/.302/.383, .686 OPS, 120 AB, 5 SB, 2 CS
Pedro Martinez - 10-4, 125 IP, 2.88 ERA, 135 SO, 1.02 WHIP
Oliver Perez - 9-12, 190 IP, 4.69 ERA, 196 SO, 1.45 WHIP
John Maine - 12-11, 200 IP, 4.05 ERA, 169 SO, 1.36 WHIP
El Duque - 8-7, 139 IP, 3.95 ERA, 118 SO, 1.28 WHIP
Billy Wagner - 2.74 ERA, 35 SV, 69 IP, 82 SO, 1.01 WHIP
Aaron Heilman - 3.41 ERA, 87 IP, 72 SO, 1.23 WHIP
Pedro Feliciano - 3.57 ERA, 68 IP, 61 SO, 1.31 WHIP
Duaner Sanchez - 3.98 ERA, 61 IP, 45 SO, 1.36 WHIP
Matt Wise - 3.83 ERA, 40 IP, 31 SO, 1.28 WHIP
Scott Schoeneweis - 4.50 ERA, 60 IP, 36 SO, 1.47 WHIP
Jorge Sosa - 6-7, 4.38 ERA, 115 IP, 15 GS, 75 SO, 1.45 WHIP
Recent Mets:
Lastings Milledge - .286/.350/.463, .813 OPS, 18 HR, 21 SB, 10 CS
Paul Lo Duca - .283/.331/.395, .727 OPS, 9 HR
The biggest problem here seems to be the starting rotation, and that has been no secret this offseason. He seems to think Delgado will bounce back as do most people. Randolph was on the Hot Stove Report, and admitted that Delgado may have been too proud last year to make the necessary changes while he was slumping. Now Delgado is admitting that he had a horrible year. He is checking his pride at the door, and hopefully this will translate into a big year in what may be a contract year for him. Overall, these numbers seem pretty solid although he doesn't seem to think too highly of Perez or Maine.
There is still a lot of time until pitchers and catchers report, and the acquisition of Santana would definitely improve both our starting pitching and bullpen. At this point, with no other viable options available, the Mets should give the Twins what they want minus Reyes and open up their checkbook. Give him what he wants, as it may be a long time until a pitcher of Santana's quality may become available to the Mets. We need to do whatever is necessary to acquire him and reclaim the NL East from the trash talking Phils.
Jose Reyes - .284/.348/.442 (AVG/OBP/SLG), .789 OPS, 14 HR, 69 SB, 20 CS
Luis Castillo - .299/.370/.360, .730 OPS, 3 HR, 20 SB, 10 CS
David Wright - .318/.407/.554, .961 OPS, 31 HR, 27 SB, 7 CS
Carlos Beltran - .275/.364/.515, .878 OPS, 32 HR, 23 SB, 5 CS
Carlos Delgado - .269/.373/.508, .881 OPS, 30 HR, 2 SB, 1 CS
Moises Alou - .292/.360/.477, .837 OPS, 19 HR, 3 SB, 1 CS, 123 Games
Ryan Church - .273/.353/.463, .815 OPS, 15 HR, 4 SB, 2 CS, 130 Games
Brian Schneider - .249/.328/.362, .690 OPS, 7 HR, 0 SB, 0 CS
Ruben Gotay - .258/.321/.406, .728 OPS, 128 AB, 3 HR
Endy Chavez - .273/.318/.368, .687 OPS, 209 AB, 2 HR, 7 SB, 3 CS
Damion Easley - .235/.326/.395, .721 OPS, 162 AB, 6 HR
Marlon Anderson - .262/.323/.402, .725 OPS, 122 AB
Ramon Castro - .252/322/.469, .791 OPS, 290 AB, 16 HR
Angel Pagan - .250/.302/.383, .686 OPS, 120 AB, 5 SB, 2 CS
Pedro Martinez - 10-4, 125 IP, 2.88 ERA, 135 SO, 1.02 WHIP
Oliver Perez - 9-12, 190 IP, 4.69 ERA, 196 SO, 1.45 WHIP
John Maine - 12-11, 200 IP, 4.05 ERA, 169 SO, 1.36 WHIP
El Duque - 8-7, 139 IP, 3.95 ERA, 118 SO, 1.28 WHIP
Billy Wagner - 2.74 ERA, 35 SV, 69 IP, 82 SO, 1.01 WHIP
Aaron Heilman - 3.41 ERA, 87 IP, 72 SO, 1.23 WHIP
Pedro Feliciano - 3.57 ERA, 68 IP, 61 SO, 1.31 WHIP
Duaner Sanchez - 3.98 ERA, 61 IP, 45 SO, 1.36 WHIP
Matt Wise - 3.83 ERA, 40 IP, 31 SO, 1.28 WHIP
Scott Schoeneweis - 4.50 ERA, 60 IP, 36 SO, 1.47 WHIP
Jorge Sosa - 6-7, 4.38 ERA, 115 IP, 15 GS, 75 SO, 1.45 WHIP
Recent Mets:
Lastings Milledge - .286/.350/.463, .813 OPS, 18 HR, 21 SB, 10 CS
Paul Lo Duca - .283/.331/.395, .727 OPS, 9 HR
The biggest problem here seems to be the starting rotation, and that has been no secret this offseason. He seems to think Delgado will bounce back as do most people. Randolph was on the Hot Stove Report, and admitted that Delgado may have been too proud last year to make the necessary changes while he was slumping. Now Delgado is admitting that he had a horrible year. He is checking his pride at the door, and hopefully this will translate into a big year in what may be a contract year for him. Overall, these numbers seem pretty solid although he doesn't seem to think too highly of Perez or Maine.
There is still a lot of time until pitchers and catchers report, and the acquisition of Santana would definitely improve both our starting pitching and bullpen. At this point, with no other viable options available, the Mets should give the Twins what they want minus Reyes and open up their checkbook. Give him what he wants, as it may be a long time until a pitcher of Santana's quality may become available to the Mets. We need to do whatever is necessary to acquire him and reclaim the NL East from the trash talking Phils.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Lord Charles
A YouTube treat for all Mets fans: the bottom of the first inning of New York's April 7, 1984 contest at the Astrodome against Houston. Doc Gooden's major league debut. His curve--that sublime offering that would come to be known as Lord Charles, a royal elevation of the traditional moniker for a hook, Uncle Charlie--doesn't look all that sharp, but the fastball is absolutely cracking. Houston's top three either tap it to the second baseman (Ron Gardenhire!) or swing through it. The dude had probably the best season of any pitcher all time (1985) using just two pitches. Devastating.
The unmistakable voice of Tim McCarver greets us right off the bat, literally, with his trademark griping. Two pitches into Doctor K's debut, instead of talking about the electric teenage righthander on the mound, Timmy is whining about how Bill Doran should've taken a strike. To be fair, though, this is a terrible job by Doran.
The unmistakable voice of Tim McCarver greets us right off the bat, literally, with his trademark griping. Two pitches into Doctor K's debut, instead of talking about the electric teenage righthander on the mound, Timmy is whining about how Bill Doran should've taken a strike. To be fair, though, this is a terrible job by Doran.
BondsWatch Update
How do you know if you should be reading The Three Run Homer? Here's a simple litmus test: if the following quote makes your heart beat faster, then join the fold...
"I wouldn't be surprised," Chavez said. "If [Bonds is] in uniform next year, there's a 90 percent chance it will be with the Oakland A's.
"It will be old, broken-down guys - me, Kotsay and Barry - and a bunch of 19-year-olds."
[Quote from this article in the San Francisco Chronicle; link courtesy of Rotowire.]
Bring Barry to the Bay! It would be incalculably awesome to see a team led by Bonds and a bunch of 21-year-old no-names give the Halos a run in the AL West next year. The Angels had a chance to blow away the rest of the division this offseason--and stake their claim to the title of best team in baseball--by signing A-Rod or trading for either Miguel Cabrera or Johan Santana. With the financial resources Arte Moreno has, there is no excuse for not getting any of those three megadeals done. Compounding that colossal mistake, the Angels threw a ridiculous amount of money at an aging Torii Hunter, giving the team two over-30, overrated flycatchers. There actually isn't as much distance between what Anaheim WILL be next year and what the A's COULD be with Bonds plugged into the DH slot for 120 games.
"I wouldn't be surprised," Chavez said. "If [Bonds is] in uniform next year, there's a 90 percent chance it will be with the Oakland A's.
"It will be old, broken-down guys - me, Kotsay and Barry - and a bunch of 19-year-olds."
[Quote from this article in the San Francisco Chronicle; link courtesy of Rotowire.]
Bring Barry to the Bay! It would be incalculably awesome to see a team led by Bonds and a bunch of 21-year-old no-names give the Halos a run in the AL West next year. The Angels had a chance to blow away the rest of the division this offseason--and stake their claim to the title of best team in baseball--by signing A-Rod or trading for either Miguel Cabrera or Johan Santana. With the financial resources Arte Moreno has, there is no excuse for not getting any of those three megadeals done. Compounding that colossal mistake, the Angels threw a ridiculous amount of money at an aging Torii Hunter, giving the team two over-30, overrated flycatchers. There actually isn't as much distance between what Anaheim WILL be next year and what the A's COULD be with Bonds plugged into the DH slot for 120 games.
Poll Reopened
We've reopened the poll so that the...uh...masses can be allowed to have their vote counted. So: how many games will the Mets win in 2008? And if you vote for more than 94, really, at this point, are you crazy? Blind optimism is certainly a form of insanity.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Home Cooking
The 2007 Mets finished 1 game out of first place with a record of 88 and 77. That finish was 9 games below their 2006 record. What accounted for this decline? A look at the raw numbers brings a shocking answer. It was the Mets play at home that was the difference between 2006 and 2007. In fact, in 2007 the Mets posted their worst home numbers since Willie Randolph took over the club.
2007 41-40 (home) 47-34 (away)
Home Team Batting Average = .270
Home Total Runs Scored = 367
Home Team Pitching ERA = 4.20
Away Team Batting Average = .280
Away Total Runs Scored = .437
Away Team Pitching ERA = 4.42
2006 50-31 (home) 47-34 (away)
Home Team Batting Average = .256
Home Total Runs Scored = 395
Home Team Pitching ERA = 3.76
Away Team Batting Average = .272
Away Total Runs Scored = 439
Away Team Pitching ERA = 4.56
In 2006 and 2007 the Mets posted identical records on the road (47 wins, 34 loses). In both seasons they posted similar road statistics. In both 2006 and 2007 the Mets finished at the top of the NL in runs scored on the road. In both years they posted solid batting averages on the road.
At home, it was a much different story. The Mets finished 2006 with a fantastic 50 wins at home. They had a league best ERA (3.76) at home, and posted a respectable number of runs at home (395). In 2007 these numbers were much worse at home. The team ERA at home jumped to 4.20 and the numbers of runs scored at home dropped to 367.
If the Mets want to contend for the division in 2008 they must find their groove at home.
2007 41-40 (home) 47-34 (away)
Home Team Batting Average = .270
Home Total Runs Scored = 367
Home Team Pitching ERA = 4.20
Away Team Batting Average = .280
Away Total Runs Scored = .437
Away Team Pitching ERA = 4.42
2006 50-31 (home) 47-34 (away)
Home Team Batting Average = .256
Home Total Runs Scored = 395
Home Team Pitching ERA = 3.76
Away Team Batting Average = .272
Away Total Runs Scored = 439
Away Team Pitching ERA = 4.56
In 2006 and 2007 the Mets posted identical records on the road (47 wins, 34 loses). In both seasons they posted similar road statistics. In both 2006 and 2007 the Mets finished at the top of the NL in runs scored on the road. In both years they posted solid batting averages on the road.
At home, it was a much different story. The Mets finished 2006 with a fantastic 50 wins at home. They had a league best ERA (3.76) at home, and posted a respectable number of runs at home (395). In 2007 these numbers were much worse at home. The team ERA at home jumped to 4.20 and the numbers of runs scored at home dropped to 367.
If the Mets want to contend for the division in 2008 they must find their groove at home.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
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