Over at Baseball Prospectus, Nate Silver has released Johan Santana's 2008 PECOTA projection for Shea Stadium, as well as what it would have looked like were he still a member of the Twins next year.
Santana is projected to put up a sub-3.00 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and strike out 239 batters in 225 innings. He does get a slight boost from moving to the National League and pitching in Shea, although Silver makes the point that the Metrodome has become a decent park for pitchers lately, lessening the impact on his numbers. However, one has reason to believe that his numbers could be even better than that--the esteemed BobbyBo made the point that Pedro Martinez's ERA dropped over a full run when he moved from the A.L. to the Mets--and Santana's 3.33 ERA from last year could be viewed as something of a fluke, anyway, due to an elevated home run rate. Santana will be just 29 this season, as well. The Mets pulled off an absolute coup, trading for the best pitcher in the game and doing so without giving up their best prospect, Fernando Martinez. This move instantly elevates New York to the favorite in the National League. Omar Minaya, whose curious moves this offseason have been criticized in this space, deserves full credit for taking advantage of a hamstrung Twins front office and leveraging one team's headache (Santana's trade demand) to land the 2008 favorite for the N.L. Cy Young award.
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