Don't Panic

While I completely agree that the Winter Meetings were a disappointment for the Mets, I do not feel the Mets need to panic. Would I like an a front line starter added to the Mets rotation? Yes. Would I panic and trade Jose Reyes? No. Let's not forget that this team won 98 games in 2006. This team also held first place for nearly all of 2007. With that in mind, let's look at the team as it stands today.

The current lineup projects as follows:
1) Reyes
2) Castillo
3) Wright
4) Beltran
5) Delgado
6) Alou
7) Church
8) Schneider/Castro

The current rotation projects as follows:
1) Martinez
2) Perez
3) Maine
4) Hernandez
5) Pelfrey / Humber / Heilman

The current bullpen shapes up with players from the following group:
1) Wagner
2) Sanchez
3) Feliciano
4) Schoenweis
5) Sosa
6) Smith
7) Padilla
8) Burgos

The bench shapes up with players from the following group:

1) Chavez
2) Gomez
3) Anderson
4) Gotay
5) Easley
6) Castro/Schneider/Estrada

By looking at the team as a whole, there is reason for optimism. The lineup is solid. It has great depth. The lineup has speed and power. Reyes is a spark at the top of the order, and I expect him to have a solid year in 2008. Castillo was a good 2nd baseman in 2007 for the Mets, providing solid defense and an adequate bat. He had surgery in the fall, and we can hope he is healthy in 2008. Wright is a star, and has posted great numbers in all of his years in the majors. Expect more of the same in 2008. Beltran had great years in 2006 and 2007. If the lineup around him is strong, and he can stay healthy, it is reasonable to expect another big year from Beltran. Delgado slumped miserably in 2007, but still put up 24 homers and 87 rbi's. Before worrying too much about his bat speed, remember he had a tremendous year in 2006 and had a solid spring in 2007. It is not unreasonable to expect a bounce back year from Carlos. In left field the Mets would be crazy to expect a full season from Alou. Alou will likely put up great numbers when healthy, especially in this lineup. But the fact is that Alou is a 41 year old man with a long history of injury plagued seasons. Fortunately, the Mets have plenty of backups for his position. The only real question mark in the lineup remains in right. Currently, it looks like Church will get the nod provided he has a decent spring. Church is attractive because he plays good defense, and is pretty solid at the plate (in 2006 he led the Nationals with 43 doubles). There is a nice blend of youth and experience. To make matters even better, this solid lineup is backed up by a capable bench. With Anderson, Gotay, Chavez, Gomez, Easley, and Castro/Schneider/Estrada the Mets will have plenty of options from the bench. They will have speed, power, and defense available to the bring in the game.

The next part of the roster to analyze is the rotation. In my opinion, the rotation is not as bad as it may seem. Martinez is back and healthy. He finished 2007 great, and will be a nice bonus to the team this season if he can stay healthy. Maine had a fabulous season in 2007, although he clearly suffered from fatigue at the end of the year. Having now pitched a full season in the majors, he should be better suited to survive in September and October of 2008. Perez regained his ace-like stuff in 2007, and the Mets have no reason to suspect he will fall out of sync in 2008. The 4th and 5th spots of the rotation are definitely a concern for the Mets. Hernandez was brillant when health in 2007, just as he had been in 2006. The problem, however, is that Hernandez cannot be trusted for 30-35 starts and 200+ innings. It is more likely that the Mets can get about 20-25 starts and 150 innings. The 5th spot, as it stands now, would likely be given to the hot hand in spring training. Still, the Mets have potential for that spot in Pelfrey, Humber, and Heilman. Let's not forget that going into 2007 Mike Pelfrey was being selected by ESPN analysts to follow the path of Verlander. It is also worth noting that Heilman can be tested as a potential starter during Spring Training. While I personally do not think he has the "stuff" necessary to be a big league pitcher (he only throws 2 pitches), he and many other teams seem to think he is competent.

The bullpen is an interesting dilemma. While the Mets have seemingly capable arms in the pen, I am not super comfortable with the options. We know Wagner is set at closer. If Heilman stays in the pen, we can be fairly certain of what he will give us (usually about 85 innings with a 3.5 era). Sanchez is an unknown. He was awesome when health in 2006. However, he is coming off a long stint on the DL. How much we expect from him this year? The same likely goes for Padilla, who is also coming off a long stint on the DL. Shoeneweis is a so-so reliever, and 2007 was no exception. He pitched to his career averages (50-60 innings, 5 era). I would not expect a great improvement in 2008. The same likely goes for Sosa. Feliciano pitched well in 2006 and 2007. His numbers, however, fail to show just how poorly he pitched down the stretch in 2007. Still, I think it is reasonable to expect solid numbers from him in 2008 (mid 2 low 3 era, around 60 innings). Joe Smith, frankly, is a mystery. He pitched great, then fell apart, then got injured, and never seemed to really recover. It will be interesting to see how he recovers in 2008.

In addition to a solid roster, the Mets also boast a top tier prospect in Martinez. The team has great revenue from SNY. A new stadium is on the horizon. Not all is doom and gloom in Flushing this winter. Clearly, the Mets like so many teams could benefit from more pitching. They could use another front-line starter to replace the loss of Glavine and to take the pressure off the aging Pedro. They could certainly use more help in the bullpen. Still, I do not believe the Mets should risk the future of the team by making an outrageous trade. Remember, trading for the sake of trading is usually not a smart move.